Americans are more confident about who they won’t vote for than who they will

Americans Are More Confident About Who They Won’t Vote For Than Who They Will - 4Iy2Dib256R3Yq63Fhaycvkf5Q
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We do not yet know who will be on the presidential ballot in November 2024.

It seems quite likely that the Democratic nominee will be President Biden, but it seemed pretty likely in December 2019 that the NBA wasn’t going to suddenly shut down three months later. Weird things happen.

It also seems likely that the Republican nominee will be one of two people: former president Donald Trump or Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. Between the two of them, they vacuum up about three-quarters of the support in national primary polling so — while weird things do happen! — it’s safe to operate under the assumption that one of them will eventually be the nominee.

What this sets up, then, is a presidential campaign with at least one major-party candidate who is awfully unpopular. If the Republicans nominate Trump, there will be two such candidates. If they nominate DeSantis, we can be confident that, by the time November rolls around, his current, middle-of-the-road…

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This article was written by Philip Bump and originally published on