Stocks have soared 16% since June. Here are 2 charts that explain why – and 1 that suggests the rally will soon end.

US stocks have rallied sharply since June.
The S&P 500 has rebounded 17% from its June lows, with investors feeling strangely cheery.
The rally has been driven by signs that inflation is cooling and that the Federal Reserve won’t hike rates as hard.
Yet US economic growth is also slowing sharply — and a recession would spell serious trouble for stocks.

Like a basketball hitting a trampoline, the S&P 500 has bounced higher after plummeting in the first half of the year. As of early Friday, the benchmark US stock index was up 17% from its June low.

Elsewhere in the market, things are looking even brighter. The NYSE FANG+ stock index — which tracks 10 leading Big Tech players — is technically back in a bull market, with the likes of Amazon and Tesla having soared more than 20%.

But Americans, and other people around the world, are highly gloomy about the prospects for their economy. Inflation in advanced economies is running at its hottest for many decades, and central banks look…

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This article was written by [email protected] (Harry Robertson) and originally published on